Authored by Jeff

Authored by Jeff Snell, Managing Member of JR Snell Capital Management, LLC

November 28, 2025: Market News & Financial Planning Tips

Authored by Jeff, Financial Planning, Markets

This Week’s Market

The stock market showed steady gains this shortened holiday week, with major indices climbing amid positive economic signals and tech sector strength. From Monday’s open, the S&P 500 rose about 2.9% to approximately 6,828 by Friday at 11 a.m. ET. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased roughly 2.5% to around 47,522, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 3.7% to near 23,303. Volumes moderated as the week progressed, reflecting typical pre-holiday trading patterns.

It was a good week to keep our focus on our growth stock strategies, while maintaining appropriate allocations by considering not just one’s tolerance for risk, but their capacity for it as well.

It may take a while for the current administration’s economic revival plan to take effect, but for now it appears as though “the market” is a believer. Stay positive about this… negativity is not usually a profitable stance 😎.

Trending Topics This Week

The IRS recently announced increases to retirement savings limits for 2026, including higher contributions for 401(k)s, IRAs, and HSAs. This adjustment, aimed at keeping pace with inflation, has sparked discussions in financial news about optimizing tax-advantaged accounts to bolster long-term security.

This Week’s Ideas

  • Use Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) from your IRA if age 70½ or older; these allow direct transfers to charities up to $105,000 annually in 2025, satisfying RMD requirements without increasing taxable income.
  • Consider a “laddered” Roth conversion strategy in lower-income years before full retirement, converting portions of traditional IRAs gradually to manage tax brackets and secure tax-free growth.

Readers are encouraged to reply directly to this newsletter with any questions or comments, or reach out by calling or texting our office at 480-575-7688.

If you are not a client and have in-depth questions or want to explore how we might assist you, book a Discovery Call.

The information on our website and this blog is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but JR Snell Capital Management does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on our website and in this newsletter or blog is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument.

November 28, 2025: Market News & Financial Planning Tips Read Post »

November 21, 2025: Market News & Financial Planning Tips

Authored by Jeff, Financial Planning, Markets, Social Security

This Week’s Market

U.S. stock markets faced increased volatility this week, with major indices closing lower amid doubts about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally and anticipation of key economic data like jobs reports and Nvidia earnings. The S&P 500 declined about 0.9%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.8% after a second straight weekly drop, led by tech sector sell-offs. The Dow Jones dropped sharply on Monday, shedding over 550 points, as investors shifted toward defensive sectors. Bond yields edged higher, oil prices held steady, and the VIX dipped slightly to around 19.8, reflecting moderated but persistent uncertainty.1

Increased volatility and market ‘pauses’ as we seem to be currently experiencing are normal parts of market action. We’ve been on an extended rally since April and an moderate short-term ‘pause’ wouldn’t be historically unusual to see here.

Trending Topics This Week

Chit-chat around the interwebs highlight the value of life insurance as a tool for tax-free retirement income. Beyond traditional death benefits, modern policies offer flexibility for high earners to recharacterize income, defer compensation, and build savings shielded from future tax changes. This approach is gaining attention for its role in long-term financial security without relying solely on taxable accounts.

I could warm to this idea for high-earners also looking to replace income should their untimely demise leave dependents destitute… but as a “pure” financial planning strategy as one approaches retirement, not so much. Let’s chat if you have questions.

This Week’s Ideas

  • Consider qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) from IRAs if you’re subject to Required Minimum Distributions; these allow direct transfers to charities that count toward required minimum distributions but aren’t taxed as income, potentially lowering your Medicare premiums.
  • Explore spousal Social Security strategies: If married, one partner can claim spousal benefits while delaying their own to maximize lifetime payouts, providing a bridge to higher delayed credits without dipping into savings prematurely. We currently do this during our pre-retirement cash flow and retirement income planning sessions.

Readers are encouraged to reply to this newsletter directly with any questions or comments.

If you are not a client and have in-depth questions or want to learn whether we can help, book a Discovery Call.

The information on our website and this blog is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but JR Snell Capital Management does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on our website and in this newsletter or blog is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument.

  1. All prices and quotes are taken from my market data software, “TradingView” ↩︎

November 21, 2025: Market News & Financial Planning Tips Read Post »

November 14, 2025: Market News & Financial Planning Tips

Authored by Jeff

This Week’s Market

This week, major U.S. stock indices faced minor downward pressure amid an extended tech selloff and fading expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut. Although the S&P 500 fell in early Friday trading, by midday the market had reversed and was up nearly a half a percent… making for a big intraday swing.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average also dropped at the open and subsequently reversed, while the Nasdaq Composite also turned positive after a three-day move down. Wall Street closed lower on Thursday as investors grew cautious ahead of the Fed’s meeting, with overseas markets also selling off a bit.

Trending Topics This Week

As the holiday season approaches, discussions on effective holiday spending strategies are prominent in financial circles. Experts recommend setting clear budgets early, prioritizing needs over wants, and using tools like cash-back apps to minimize post-holiday debt. With inflation still a factor, this focus helps maintain financial stability into the new year. Open enrollment for the Affordable Care Act is another key conversation, urging individuals to review plans for cost savings on health coverage.

This Week’s Ideas

  • Leverage Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) beyond immediate medical needs by treating them as a retirement investment vehicle; contributions reduce taxable income, earnings grow tax-free, and qualified withdrawals in retirement are also tax-free, providing a powerful tool for long-term health care costs.
  • Implement a Roth conversion ladder by gradually converting portions of traditional IRA or 401(k) funds to a Roth IRA over several years, managing annual tax implications while building a source of tax-free retirement income, especially useful if you anticipate higher tax brackets later.

If you have any questions or comments, please reply directly to this email—I read all replies. You can also call or text our office at 480-575-7688.

If you’re not a client and have in-depth questions or want to learn if we can help, book a Discovery Call.

The information on our website and this blog is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but JR Snell Capital Management does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on our website and in this newsletter or blog is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument.

November 14, 2025: Market News & Financial Planning Tips Read Post »

November 7, 2025: Market News & Financial Planning Tips

Authored by Jeff

This Week’s Market

Stocks faced headwinds this week amid economic concerns, leading to notable declines across major indexes. The Nasdaq Composite dropped about 2.8%, marking its worst weekly performance since April. The S&P 500 fell over 1.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped around 0.5%. Tech stocks led the weakness, with markets opening lower on Friday as investors assessed ongoing uncertainties.

We continue to emphasize a long-term outlook for all investments, especially stocks. Volatility like this past week is the name of the game from time to time and provides a natural reset or rest, a critical function for market health.

Trending Topics This Week

One prominent discussion in financial news centers on the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). Set at 1.4%, this modest increase reflects cooling inflation but has sparked conversations about its adequacy for retirees facing rising healthcare and living costs. Analysts note it aligns with broader economic stabilization efforts.

This Week’s Ideas

  • Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs): For those over 70½ with IRAs, direct QCDs to charities can fulfill required minimum distributions without adding to taxable income, potentially lowering Medicare premiums.
  • Asset Location Optimization: Place high-growth investments in Roth accounts and income-generating assets in tax-deferred ones to minimize lifetime taxes, a strategy often overlooked in portfolio reviews.

If you have questions or comments, reply directly to this email—I read all responses. You can also call or text our office at 480-575-7688.

If you are not a client and have in-depth questions or want to explore how we might assist you, book a Discovery Call.

The information on our website and this blog is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but JR Snell Capital Management does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on our website and in this newsletter or blog is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument.

November 7, 2025: Market News & Financial Planning Tips Read Post »

October 31, 2025: Market News & Financial Planning Tips

Authored by Jeff

This week’s stock market had major indices achieving fresh all-time highs amid a mix of positive earnings and economic data.

Key drivers included better-than-expected third-quarter earnings beats from S&P 500 companies, with 85% exceeding EPS estimates, and softer CPI inflation figures that came in below forecasts. Investment trends remain centered on technology and AI, supported by resilient corporate profits, though broader market breadth suggests healthy participation across sectors.

As I suggested last week, the federal reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25%. This leaves our cash reserves accounts yielding 3.45%. This is still better than many competing cash reserves accounts, but brings into question the whole idea of maintaining significant reserves in the first place. Cash reserves are primarily intended as short-term parking places, but given their recent relatively attractive rates, some folks have parked longer term funds in these instruments. Now that the rates on these accounts have dropped below longer-term alternatives, it might be time for many to reach out to consider other ideas. If you think you’re one of these people, feel free to reply to this email… I’ll get the reply and respond as quickly as practicable.

One financial planning topic currently discussed in the news and on social media is the emphasis on health-related considerations in retirement strategies, particularly during National Financial Planning Month this October. Conversations highlight the need to account for potential medical expenses, long-term care options, and insurance integration to maintain financial stability in later years. This approach helps ensure that healthcare needs do not erode savings unexpectedly.

Although we don’t sell insurance products, if we discover the need for them with you, we have our “people” that will guide you in the right direction.

Financial Planning Hacks of the Week

For investors approaching retirement within the next 5 to 10 years or those already retired, here are a couple of lesser-known strategies to consider:

  • Leverage Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs): If you are 70½ or older and subject to required minimum distributions (RMDs) from your IRA, directing up to $100,000 annually to qualified charities via QCDs can satisfy your RMD while excluding the amount from taxable income. This can be particularly useful for maintaining lower tax brackets and supporting causes you value without additional out-of-pocket costs.
  • Strategic Roth Conversions in Transitional Years: In years when your income is lower—such as during a career transition or early retirement—converting portions of traditional IRA funds to a Roth IRA can minimize future taxes on withdrawals. By paying taxes on the conversion at current rates, you position tax-free growth for the long term, which is especially beneficial if you anticipate higher tax brackets later due to RMDs or other income sources.

If you have questions or comments, please reply directly to this email—I read and respond to all of them. You can also reach out by calling or texting our office at 480-575-7688. If you are not yet a client and would like answers to in-depth questions or to learn whether we can help with your situation, consider booking a Discovery Call

The information on our website and this blog is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but JR Snell Capital Management does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on our website and in this newsletter or blog is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument.

October 31, 2025: Market News & Financial Planning Tips Read Post »

This Week’s Market News & Financial Planning Tips

Authored by Jeff

Market Update from the Past Week (October 17-24, 2025)

Equity markets demonstrated steady performance amid ongoing earnings reports. On October 17, major indices closed positively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 238 points (0.52%), the NASDAQ Composite increasing 117 points (0.52%), and the S&P 500 advancing 35 points (0.53%).

This upward movement reflects continued corporate strength in key sectors. Additionally, anticipation builds for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for October 28-29, where a potential interest rate adjustment is under consideration, which could influence fixed-income strategies. Such developments highlight the value of diversified holdings in navigating economic signals.

The fed has hinted that it might decrease interest rates once or twice more this year, so stay tuned.

Financial Planning News

I didn’t know this (duh?), but October marks Financial Planning Month. News outlets underscored the need for comprehensive preparation. A U.S. Bank report noted that only 37% of non-retired adults are actively planning for retirement, while 58% feel confident in their savings—prompting calls for enhanced budgeting and goal-setting.

Surveys indicate affluent investors increasingly prioritize advisors who incorporate tax planning into investment strategies, fostering more integrated approaches to wealth preservation. These discussions encourage regular reviews to align plans with personal circumstances.

We are actively increasing our collaboration with the tax advisors that we use, as well as the tax advisors that each client might use. If we haven’t had a conversation with your tax advisor (CPA et al), we’d love the introduction and the opportunity to collaborate in real time with them on your behalf.

Lesser-Known Financial Planning Strategies

Consider these specialized techniques to refine your approach, particularly useful for optimizing resources in later career stages or retirement.

  1. 401(k) Super Catch-Up Contributions: For individuals aged 60-63 in 2025, employer-sponsored plans allow an additional “super” catch-up contribution of up to $10,000 beyond standard limits, potentially totaling $33,500 for the year. This provision can accelerate savings growth tax-deferred, aiding those bolstering nest eggs in the final pre-retirement years.
  2. Optimizing Tax Withholding for Efficiency: Adjust your paycheck or retirement distribution withholding to match actual tax liability, avoiding underpayment penalties while freeing up cash flow throughout the year. This subtle adjustment can prevent surprises at tax time and improve liquidity for investments or expenses.

If these strategies resonate or raise questions, we invite you to contact JR Snell Capital Management for tailored insights.

The information on our website and this blog is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but JR Snell Capital Management does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on our website and in this newsletter or blog is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument.

This Week’s Market News & Financial Planning Tips Read Post »

Technical Difficulties on a Reboot

Authored by Jeff

Apparently, I’m more technically challenged than I thought I was.

You might have received an errant “newsletter” this week on Wednesday. This is the reboot of the weekly digest that I’ve sent out for many years. But, when I reactivated it on Wednesday, it picked up some old test articles and sent them out immediately.

Sorry about that… please ignore!

You are supposed to get our weekly digest on Sunday mornings. It’s a lighter read than a hard-hitting investment dissection and analysis.

I intend to write articles, investment commentary, and analysis from time to time. When I’ve written an article, it will be presented here as the first article in the weekly digest email rather than delivered separately to you through other means.

I have also been working on an investing series over the last couple of weeks, which discusses the new administration’s economic and cost-cutting policies. I have completed the last article in that series about how tariffs, policy directives, onshoring, government cost-cutting, and reducing or eliminating bureaucratic red tape could help to completely reshape our economy if enacted.

Let me know if you’d like a copy of that last report, and I will forward it to you directly.

Thanks, and happy Sunday and have a great upcoming week!

Jeff

Technical Difficulties on a Reboot Read Post »

Sailing in Purgatory: An Analogy

Authored by Jeff

A colleague mentioned the other day that investing in the current stock and bond markets felt a bit like being in purgatory. And you know what? It does seem a little like purgatory, where souls are believed to await their final fate.

Just as purgatory is often depicted as a place of reflection and penance, investors in a challenging market environment undergo emotional turmoil. Seeing investments not yielding expected returns, or being stuck in positions with no clear exit strategy, can be mentally exhausting.

Admittedly, comparing anything to purgatory is not my preferred analogy, but I see his point.

After a smallish rally earlier this year, the stock market has turned down about 8% over just the last two months leaving us with a tiny sliver of profit so far this year and it seems like nothing is happening now, nor will it anytime soon.

And the bond market? Fuhgeddaboudit.

But here’s my preferred analogy:

Imagine that you and I are in a sailboat together. She’s a beaut’; sleek, polished, and built from years of study and analysis of the science of sailing.

We’ve launched her and we’re all together in the boat. We’ve got the sails trimmed, the keel is at just the right depth, and the rudder’s set in exactly the right direction.

But, there’s no wind. And we can’t make it windy either. We’re just stuck staring at each other, waiting for something to happen.

So maybe we try to jiggle things about by changing the configuration of the boat and trying some other different things.

But that’s not the problem. The problem is the wind, or more accurately the lack of it. No amount of adjusting on our boat is going to make the wind blow.

The risk is that during our jiggling and retrimming, the wind starts to blow and we find ourselves out of position and unable to take advantage of our newfound wind. Or worse yet, we’re so out of position a strong gust capsizes us.

Better just to wait in the calm, staring at each other, knowing the wind will blow again someday.

It always does.

~ Jeff


Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change.

Information in this newsletter does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice. A professional advisor (such as myself) should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. No content should not be construed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation.


Sailing in Purgatory: An Analogy Read Post »

Guest Comments from Roger Weller

Authored by Jeff

Roger Weller and I have known each other for about a couple of decades. For the past 10 or 15 years, I’ve been fortunate enough to have Roger as an advisor with JRSCM. He takes care of folks all up and down the Atlantic coast and has oodles of experience and knowledge of and about the business of planning and investing.

So, his comments are interesting and relevant to today’s market and drip of wisdom.

Hi everyone:

It’s been a while since we’ve discussed recent market activities with you, so we thought that you might like ourthoughts on the subject as recent markets have been so volatile lately. Remember our recent article on “Fear and Greed”? Yup, many investors get nervous and sell at market bottoms only to realize later that theyshould’ve been buying as markets generally go higher over time.

Old Fashioned Correction

The volatility you’ve been experiencing lately is really an old-fashioned correction. By definition, a correction is a 10% reduction to account balances after a solid increase was experienced in the markets.

Last summer, we had that increase that started in July and continued into the middle of August. A correction is a healthy situation as investors begin buying again once they realize that bargains are available.

Auto Strike

While its debatable as to whether a strike is good or bad, the economy can be affected by a decline in activity and Wall Street worries that such can disrupt the value of securities. The reduction in auto production will likely have a brief impact on investments, but long term our investments generally trend higher.

Potential Government Shut Down

Governmental legislative risk nearly always puts a drag on our portfolios, but once resolved, our markets heal rather quickly. Memories are most always short term, so selling should not be an option. Please don’t pay too much attention to the media as they just love to use a potential shut down to scare folks ….. just ignore them.

Interest Rate and Inflation Risks

Interest rates and inflation are like twins; one serves the other. The Fed just paused interest rates for the
second time since beginning their fight against inflation mainly because inflation has been slowing. So, despite their recent comments, the Fed is winning their war against inflation. But they still like to keep an oar in the water, so the mere thought of another interest rate increase caused the markets to drop again.

Summary

Please remember that the absolute worst time in the markets over the last 75 years has been the August –
October period, but the absolute best time has been the November – January period. Despite how you might feel about the markets today, the next few months should reflect much better performance
given the following:

  • Companies have reported increasing sales and earnings all this year.
  • People are still spending money on consumer goods.
  • Interest rates have likely stabilized, which means inflation will be lower.
  • All the above tends to cause markets to improve over time.

Thanks for trusting us with your business. It’s truly been an honor serving you.

~Roger Weller


Guest Comments from Roger Weller Read Post »

I’m Back… Well, I Never Really Left

Authored by Jeff

It’s been a while since everyone’s heard from me in this format. I’ve received a lot of feedback in the past about how much everyone enjoyed my occasional comments (Thank You!) as well as the new posts of articles that I’ve found of interest this week.

I’ve tried several other formats thus far this year (as I’m sure most of you are aware… sorry about that) and I’ve been less than impressed with the feel, the content itself, or just the general “impersonal” -ness of the communications. My bad all the way. Thanks for your patience.

And so I’m back! There’s so much that I read and want to share with everyone each week that I keep coming back to this “weekly-new-posts-with-occasional-comments-by-me” format.

I hope you like it.

And if you don’t, there’s always the link at the bottom of this and every issue to unsubscribe.

I expect that I will be consistently using this space to either make weekly comments about the articles that I’ve clipped, or maybe some machinations of interest in the financial markets.

So, these “lead posts” of our weekly content will likely be a substitute for the long-form types of newsletters that I’ve written in the past.

Thanks for sticking around and I hope you enjoy the future posts. ~jrs

I’m Back… Well, I Never Really Left Read Post »

What a great week: The history of the market is such that the future is brightest when stocks have plunged, and vice versa. I love bear markets because they raise the odds that future investment returns will be both positive and high.

Authored by Jeff, Behavioral Finance

What a great week: The history of the market is such that the future is brightest when stocks have plunged, and vice versa. I love bear markets because they raise the odds that future investment returns will be both positive and high. Read Post »

“What Is Wrong With My Investments?”

Authored by Jeff, Markets

head shotA hot topic of conversation around the ‘virtual water cooler’ these days is the subject of investment performance. Or more specifically, the lack thereof. It doesn’t seem to matter who you’re with or how you’re picking your investments; from professionals to do-it-yourselfers, everyone is suffering.

Let’s look into the reasons why 2015 is being such a bugger of a year for everyone, when seemingly nothing financially dramatic has happened.

US Stocks:  US stocks have performed the best of any asset class thus far this year, which is saying little. The stock market has been range-bound since February and the net gain for the S&P 500 Index is hovering around +/- 2%, depending upon which day of the week you look at it. For all intents and purposes, it’s unchanged for the year.

International Stocks: European stocks have done well if your investments are Euro-based. Your actual performance would not reflect this as it’s based in dollars. Since the US dollar has strengthened considerably so far this year, dollar denominated funds have fared very poorly. Greek debt resolution also played a large role in the big fluctuation of these stocks. Good for the cost of European vacations, bad for American investors.

Emerging Market Stocks: Emerging market stocks continue their slippery descent: These economies have been largely affected by the considerable weakness of Chinese and Russian economies. The hopes of recovery that was anticipated before May this year has been dashed and now they are at the lowest level in the last 52 weeks.

Real Estate: Real estate based investments are highly sensitive to interest rates and investors have dumped the stocks since their high in March. They recently recovered from their lows because the interest rate scare has momentarily subsided. It’s questionable as to whether the recovery in these stocks will hold.

Long Term Bonds: After a very rough start to the year, long term bonds’ recent rally has been based on weak economic growth (GDP) and a not robust enough job market (too many temporary workers, stalled wage growth and record low participation rate). Apparently markets are adjusting to the effect of an upcoming interest rate increase.

Since basic investment tenets and asset allocation strategies all recommend that investors have various combinations of most, if not all of the above asset classes,  picking a winning portfolio this year has been akin to picking a center for your basketball team and all of your choices are 4′ 11″.

“What Is Wrong With My Investments?” Read Post »

The Market, Greece and Big Picture Thinking

Authored by Jeff, Behavioral Finance, Markets, Travel

head shotI used to make market comments quite frequently, but I don’t so much these days. It’s not that I no longer have an interest; I do still find the markets quite fascinating. It’s more that I’ve come to the conclusion that it makes no difference what I think: The markets will do what they do despite my opinion.

But when we’re faced with the rare situation when it looks like small minds are beginning to rule the day, I can’t resist stepping in to try to come to the rescue of those of us who wish to think bigger… globally… and long-term.

So first, let’s talk about the market facts: Yep, we’ve had a couple of lousy weeks in the market. So lousy in fact that the stock market (S&P 500 Index) is now basically unchanged from Thanksgiving of 2014. It’s so boring that the 3 month, 6 month and year-to-date returns are almost  not measurable, leaving us with a less than a 1% total return overall since last fall.

What does this mean? Nothing. It’s a flat spot, which is a typical thing in the market from time to time. Sometimes we can get into these ruts for an extended period of time. Most likely, we’re just working off past excesses: The stock market gets a little ahead of itself from time to time and now it is taking a necessary breather. (Yawn here.)

The silver lining here is that a wicked sell off is also a great way to work off excess market valuations. Believe me, flat spots (consolidations) are a much easier way to digest past gains, unless you’re afraid of being bored to death.

The bottom line is that even with the past few weeks selloff, the current long-term uptrend is still intact. We’re still invested in equities in a meaningful way. If it changes in the future, we’ll step away from the stock market before bad turns to worse… and probably write about that too.

Second, let’s talk about Greece: Oh my. What a great story for the news channels. Although the story makes for great press, everyone has known for about 5 years that Greece is in trouble. If the market’s don’t like surprises and this is no surprise, then it’s no wonder that we haven’t seen much, if any market movement due to the newest leg of this crisis.

As I write this, it’s projected that Greek voters have voted “no” on furthering the bailout terms. It’s hard to say how the market will react, if at all. Greece is about 2% of the Eurozone and their GDP is about the same as Connecticut’s.

Although there won’t be a significant actual financial fallout, there could be some emotional, ‘what-if’ reaction. It could inject some volatility into financial markets in the coming weeks. If it’s enough to change the long-term trend of the US stock markets, we’ll adjust. Otherwise, we’ll take the media’s squawking with our usual grain of salt.

If you want to take action on the Greek crisis, I suggest that you take a European vacation. Everything that is Euro-based is cheaper. Stay in a nicer hotel in Munich or dine at a nicer restaurant in Paris. (Maybe stay away from Greece itself right now unless you have plenty of cash on hand, since the ATMs are only giving up about 60 Euros a day.)

And lastly, here are a couple of paragraphs from a recent interview with Aby Rosen (New York real estate tycoon):

More than 5 Billion was spent by rich Chinese investors on New York property between early 2013 and December 2014 – up from less than 300 million in 2012 – according to the Wall Street Journal. There are so many billionaires created in China on a monthly basis who are smart enough to know that taking money out of China is already profit in itself.

There are hundreds and hundreds, thousands and thousands of foreign investors wanting to spend their money in the U.S. There’s been a flight from South America, from Russians who want to take their money out of the country -the rouble’s collapse didn’t help lately but there is still enough money. There are Indians, Malaysians and Old Europeans, including Jews leaving France. Qatar is coming, Abu Dhabi is coming, Egyptians, people who made money in Africa. Lots of wealthy independent people are looking at America for second or third homes – and the US is far more welcoming now to foreigners than it ever has been.

Commerce is in. If real estate is booming, art is booming. If you have a great apartment, you need great art. The worlds of architecture, art and fashion are all melting together into one happy family. There’s so much money out there and people want to have a good time. What else are they going to do with their cash?

And of course, it’s not just real estate and art. The kinds of demographic moves Mr. Rosen is seeing will affect everything and everyone. Even you.

Jeff

 

The Market, Greece and Big Picture Thinking Read Post »

Why It Doesn’t Matter What I Think About The Market

Authored by Jeff, Behavioral Finance, Markets

Jeff SnellShould we have an opinion about the stock market, or even about the direction of the economy? Is it important to set a firm course of action based upon our expectations of what we think will occur in the coming months?

Most readers when asked, would think these questions a bit silly. Everyone “knows” that you must have an opinion to be a successful investor.

Or do you? Given the nature of how  a publicly traded market truly functions, it’s quite possible that having a preconceived notion about it’s future direction could be more hindrance than help.

I consistently see evidence that the investors who nerdatcomputerhave a firm opinion about what they believe will occur in the future are taking a risk with their flexibility. They’re messing with an essential investing skill that is the ability to change and adapt to a very fluid and dynamic situation.

Once a money manager or other professional makes a public declaration about an expected market direction, it becomes increasingly difficult for them to abandon their position should the market begin to prove them wrong. Ultimately, this can lead to their own pride or hubris costing them and those they advise significant sums of money.

Even the “experts” are wrong most of the time. In a classic case of “couldn’t be MORE wrong”, late in the year in 2007, in an annual Barron’s survey, 12 prominent strategists were questioned about what they thought would be the course of the economy and the market for 2008.

First, not a single one of them predicted a recession even though we were already in a recession at the time of the survey (December 2007). Second, their ending estimates for the S&P 500 were between 1525 and 1750. The S&P 500 closed 2008 at 903.25. That’s an embarrassingly huge miss!

Of course, it would be a bigger shame if they managed or advised others based upon an unflinching adherence to their predictions. That’s a portfolio-wrecking miscalculation and strategy. And this isn’t just one “strategist”… it’s all of them.

It’s foolish, dangerous and most likely quite expensive to try to predict the stock market in any economic scenario. Of course, this doesn’t stop the pundits or the headline-seekers from attempting it. They must be doing it for the pure publicity… good or bad, it doesn’t seem to matter.

But for me, this is why it doesn’t matter what I think about the future. The good news is that when I’m stacked up against some of the greatest economists in the world, I figure I’ve got about the same odds as them as being right. The bad news is that those odds are somewhere between slim and none.

What to do?

I think that it is more important to imagine a number of potential scenarios and their corresponding courses of action. From this brainstorming session, you can develop a written plan for the future of your investments in a sequence of decision statements.

I’ve tried to do this with our investment portfolios. We have “rules” that we follow that indicate to us when to be in a market and when to be out of a market. We don’t guarantee results or performance, but we place an emphasis on putting in place the decision trees to try to avoid the large long-term losses that come along a few times during an investor’s life cycle that can wreck or alter a financial plan entirely.

Once these rules are in place, then truly does not matter what I, you or anyone else thinks about the market. If it’s good, we’re in. If not, we’re not. Very low stress.

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